We’re taking a page from economist Solita Monsod’s methodology in assessing presidents. We looked at the Marcos government’s self-imposed targets and checked how his administration is doing in meeting them.
Marcos’ targets were set out in the Philippine Development Plan (PDP), a 450-page document that outlines the country’s growth plan from 2023-2028 and identifies 11 “headline” indicators to monitor annual progress.
Last year, Monsod showed that Marcos “passed with flying colors” when it came to handling the deficit, debt and job creation. “However, if you give more weight to the quality of jobs created, per capita incomes, food and headline inflation, then the President fails miserably,” she wrote in her column.
How about this year? Is he on track to meet them or not?
Here are the 11 headline indicators and how his government performed so far based on latest available data:
The Marcos administration aimed to cut the unemployment rate from 5.4 percent in 2022 to at least 5.0 percent — maybe 4 percent — by the time he stepped down in 2028. To achieve this, this should be brought down to 4.4 percent to 4.7 percent this year.
What are the current numbers? 4.1 percent in May. Marcos is on track to meet his target this year.
He will also likely meet five other targets: Global Innovation Index, percentage of wage and salary workers in private establishments to total employed, headline inflation rate, gross national income per capita, and outstanding National Government debt stock to GDP ratio.
But government data show he is off target in four other indicators this year.
Poverty incidence is off the mark. It’s 22.4 percent of the population, based on data from the first half of 2023. His administration imposed a target of 16 percent to 16.4 percent for 2023 and 2024.
(UPDATE: Data released on SONA day, after the publication of this report, shows that the poverty incidence in 2023 improved from 22.4% to 15.5%. It met Marcos’ target that for 2023.)
Inflation
Headline inflation eased but food inflation remained to be Marcos’ biggest challenge. Food inflation was 6.5 percent in June 2024, a long way from this year’s goal of 2.0-4.0 percent.
Controlling inflation consistently ranks high among the “most urgent concerns” of Filipinos nationwide, based on regularly conducted Pulse Asia surveys.
In June 2024, 72 percent of Filipinos said it was the most urgent concern along with increasing the pay of workers (44 percent) and reducing the poverty of many Filipinos (32 percent).
The Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA) said the improvement in the headline inflation was “primarily influenced by the slower annual increment of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels.”
The acceleration of food inflation in June 2024, however, was brought about by the faster year-on-year increase in vegetables, tubers, plantains and cooking bananas.
“The index of meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals also contributed to the uptrend with an inflation rate of 3.1 percent during the month from 1.6 percent in May 2024,” the PSA added in a July 5 report.
Explaining the headline indicators
Gross Domestic Product is the total value of all final goods and services produced within the economy in a given time.
The Global Innovation Index is the annual ranking of countries by their capacity for, and success in, innovation. It is published by the World Intellectual Property Organization.
The Global Competitiveness Index captures the microeconomic and macroeconomic foundations of national competitiveness based on the set of institutions, policies, and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country. The index survey data drawn from the World Economic Forum’s Executive Opinion Survey and hard data from indicators obtained from various sources.
Unemployment rate is the number of people who are unemployed as a percentage of the labor force.
Percentage of wage and salary workers in private establishments to total employed refers to the number of people who are employed in private establishments as a percentage of the labor force.
Gross national income per capita is the dollar value of a country’s final income in a year, divided by its population.
Poverty incidence is the proportion of individuals living in certain households with an average per capita expenditure below the poverty line.
Food inflation rate is the rise in the price of food commodities.
Headline inflation rate is the weighted average of price changes of a wide set of goods and services, with the weights representing the relative proportion of expenditures spent on each category.
National Government (NG) deficit to GDP ratio measures the size of a country’s national government deficit in relation to its GDP. It is calculated by dividing the government’s budget deficit by the country’s GDP and is usually expressed as a percentage.
Outstanding NG debt stock to GDP ratio measures the total amount of a country’s national government debt in relation to its GDP. It is calculated by dividing the outstanding national government debt by the country’s GDP and is usually expressed as a percentage. — PCIJ.org